アメリカ(海外)不動産投資で利回り２０％以上

日本は、世界的に、異例なほど、金利が安いですが、アメリカも、過去の歴史から比べると、まだ、安いほうといっていいのです。

ただ、2007年6月現在、不動産市場がまだ回復前なので、関係者は、気をもむところです。

以下、引用記事の概要です↓

5月10日段階で、30年固定ローンの利息が、6.15%だったのが、6月21日に、6.69%に。8.8%増となる。

歴史的に、1980年代前半は、金利は、12から17%だったのです。

過去に一番安かったのが、2002年の頃で、この頃、金利は、5.23%。当時の不動産バブルを支える重要な要因でした。

現在も、市場の物件が豊富なので、金利が微増しても、「まだ、買い手市場」といえると指摘されていますが、ただ、傾向としては、回復を遅めることは、間違いないでしょう。

少なくとも、ここ2年ほど、アメリカの不動産市場は、停滞を続ける地域が多いことが予想されます。値上がり狙いは、苦戦を強いられますので、私のように、まったく違ったアングルで、投資をすることを、進めます。

What Housing Didn't Need Recent mortgage-rate spike serves as added deterrent to slumping market

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 24, 2007 - Knight Ridder Tribune Business News
Author(s): Tom Spoth
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jun. 24--Rising mortgage rates are further depressing an already weak housing market, and hurting first-time buyers in particular, real-estate professionals say.

Rates have spiked recently, rising from 6.15 percent on May 10 for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to 6.69 percent on June 21, according to data from mortgage company Freddie Mac. That's an 8.8 percent increase in just six weeks. For a buyer entering into a $300,000 mortgage, the hike in mortgage rates is the difference between a monthly payment of $1,828 and one of $1,934 -- more than $100 a month. "The mortgage rates going up affects ... first-time homebuyers, people who are not very cash-rich," said Larissa Duzhansky, a regional economist with Waltham-based Global Insight. "If that rate goes up by $200 and they can't pay it, that puts a damper o their purchasing power." Duzhansky added that because home prices have dropped significantly in the last year, it's still "a great buyer's market in general" in Massachusetts.

Dan Sullivan, a Realtor at Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Chelmsford, agreed, saying that the decline in prices probably outweighs the rise in interest rates from a buyer's perspective. Still, he said, pricier mortgages can only hurt the housing market. "There's a smaller pool of buyers for the same amount of houses because not as many people qualify for them," Sullivan said. "(But rates) are still historically low. Homes will still sell, it's just a matter of people pricing them right." In the early 1980s, home buyers could have expected to see mortgage rates between 12 and 17 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate arrangement.

Rates dipped below 10 percent by 1990, and in the last decade have stayed between 5.25 percent and 8 percent, bottom ng out at 5.23 percent in 2003 at the height of the housing boom, according to Freddie Mac. Although rates are indeed low when the last 30 years is taken into account, they are higher now than they have been since mid-2002. That has many buyers spooked. "The market's still kind of squirrelly," said Tim Warren Jr., CEO of Boston-based real-estate data provider The Warren Group. "Early in the year, I thought we were going to start zipping out of it. Now we're bouncing around a bit and higher interest rat s certainly can't help." But Sullivan and Brian Sousa, president of First Team Mortgage Corp.

in Westford, both said that while loftier mortgage rates could scare off some buyers, it could also spur some to lock in a rate before it goes any higher. "A lot of times when you get a big jump in such a short period of time, it sort of serves as an impetus to those who are sitting on the fence," Sousa said. It's unclear now where mortgage rates are headed; future trends could depend largely on the actions of the Federal Reserve Board, which hasn't moved interest rates in a year, after hiking them continuously for the previous two. Further increases in mortgage rates could hurt homeowners who signed adjustable-rate mortgages when conditions were more favorable.

Rising foreclosure rates in Massachusetts and nationwide have been largely due to buyers who couldn't keep up with higher payments when their rates increased. Low-income buyers will also be less likely to secure a mortgage as rates go up, Warren pointed out, but most home-hunters should be OK. "The rise in interest rates certainly hurts buyers, there's no question about that," he said. "But there should be bargains out there."