アメリカ(海外)不動産投資で利回り２０％以上

アメリカの連邦統計局の累計資料です。

コピペだと少しわかりにくいので、リンクも掲載します。1960年からのアメリカの「市場に出ている一戸建て（single family home, SFH）の中央値」です。

日本の統計では、平均値（average）を使うほうが多いと思いますが、米国では、「データを、小さいほうから大きいほうへと並べたときに、ちょうど、両側から中央にあった数字」であるＭＥＤＩＡＮを、代表的な統計では、多く使いますので、データ内容のみならず、データ処理的にも、興味深い例です。

ＭＥＤＩＡＮの例は、たとえば、こんなもの。

「２００、４００、６００、１、０００、２、０００」

という数字があるとします。5人の人の年収だとしてもいいでしょう。

平均（ＡＶＥＲＡＧＥ）年収は、４，２００万÷５で、８４０万になります。

これに対し、中央値は、６００万になるのです。２００万、４００万の人にとっては、「周囲は、全員、８４０万稼いでいるぞ」といわれると、ぎょっとしますが、実は、８４０万以上稼いでいる人は、５人に２人。それに対し、６００万は、多少、自分からの距離が近くなりますね。この例では、たいした実感は、ないかもしれませんが、データの数字の数が多くなる場合は、両極端を排する機能が、平均値を出す場合より、より高まることになっています。

ということで、どんなデータかというと、「そのとき、市場で、売り買いされていた物件の中央値」を歴史的に並べたもの。また、次に述べますが、インフレ率調整（inflation adjusted）も加味されています。

リンクは、こちらから。

下に、文章をコピペし、私の概訳をつけてあります。

Historical Census of Housing Tables
住宅統計の歴史的な表

Home Values　家の価値

Median home values adjusted for inflation nearly quadrupled over the 60-year period since the first housing census in 1940. The median value of single-family homes in the United States rose from $30,600 in 1940 to $119,600 in 2000, after adjusting for inflation (see graph). Median home value increased in each decade of this 60-year period, rising fastest (43 percent) in the 1970s and slowest (8.2 percent) in the 1980s. Both home values adjusted and unadjusted for inflation are presented. These values refer to owner-occupied single-family housing units on less than 10 acres without a business or medical office on the property.

初回の住宅統計は、１９４０年のものだが、それ以来、６０年間の間に、住宅の中央値（インフレ調整済み）は、４倍近くに上昇した。一戸建ての中央値は、インフレ調整後のデータで、１９４０年には、３万６００ドルだったのだが、２０００年には、１１万９，６００ドルだったのだ（グラフ参照）。１９７０年代に、もっとも上昇し（４３％）、１９８０年代には、上昇率は最も低かった（８．２％）。インフレ調整してある数字と、していない数字を二つの表で、掲載してある。これらの数字は、「自宅として利用されている一戸建てであって、１０エーカー以下の敷地にあるもの、かつ、居宅内に、ビジネスや医療オフィスがない物件」のデータである。

Among states, the District of Columbia (treated as a state in these tabulations) had the highest median home value from 1940 to 1950. In 1960, Hawaii became the leader and has remained there through 2000 (Hawaii became a state in 1959). Over this 60-year period, the lowest median home values were generally found in southern states, such as Arkansas, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. However, these states were joined by a couple of western states in earlier decades and Midwestern states in later decades. For example: New Mexico, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arizona had the lowest median home values in 1940. In 2000, the southern states remained at the bottom, but were joined by North Dakota and South Dakota, in the Midwest. Home values for those western states had increased considerably. For example, Arizona’s median home value increased from well below the national median in 1940 to above it by 1980 and remained above the national level in 2000.

州ごとに見ると、ワシントンＤＣ地区が、１９４０年から５０年まで、もっとも高い中央値を見せていた。１９６０年に、ハワイがリーダーとなり、２０００年まで、その位置をキープ（ハワイが州に昇格したのは、１９５９年）。この期間、最も低い中央値は、アーカンソー、ミシシッピーやオクラホマのような南部の州で見受けられた。しかし、初期には、一部の西部の州、また、後には、一部の中西部の州が、同様に低めだった。たとえば、ニューメキシコ、アーカンソー、ミシシッピー、オクラホマ、アリゾナは、１９４０年には、中央値が最も低かった。２０００年には、南部の州はみな、ボトムに依然位置していたが、中西部から、ノースダコタとサウスダコタが、この位置に。それに対し、西部の州の価格は相当上昇した。たとえば、アリゾナは、１９４０年の全国中位値以下の数値から、１９８０年に脱出し、２０００年次に、その地位を維持した。

Median Home Values

2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940

Adjusted to 2000 dollars　（２０００年次のドルの価値にインフレ調整後の数字）

United States $119,600 $101,100 $93,400 $65,300 $58,600 $44,600 $30,600

Alabama $85,100 $68,600 $67,100 $46,900 $42,400 $27,100 $16,800
Alaska $144,200 $120,600 $151,000 $87,200 $44,800 $21,100 NA
Arizona $121,300 $102,300 $108,500 $62,600 $54,700 $36,000 $14,600
Arkansas $72,800 $59,200 $61,600 $40,300 $33,000 $24,800 $11,400
California $211,500 $249,800 $167,300 $88,700 $74,400 $57,900 $36,700
Colorado $166,600 $105,700 $126,900 $66,400 $60,600 $43,300 $21,800
Connecticut $166,900 $227,200 $129,900 $97,900 $82,300 $71,900 $48,000
Delaware $130,400 $127,900 $87,900 $65,700 $61,100 $55,000 $43,300
Dist. of Columbia $157,200 $158,300 $136,200 $81,800 $75,900 $87,800 $78,800
Florida $105,500 $98,500 $89,300 $57,600 $58,100 $40,100 $23,100
Georgia $111,200 $91,100 $73,000 $56,100 $46,800 $31,700 $20,400
Hawaii $272,700 $313,400 $233,800 $134,800 $103,000 $74,400 NA
Idaho $106,300 $74,400 $90,300 $54,200 $52,200 $35,500 $16,700
Illinois $130,800 $103,400 $104,500 $76,000 $72,400 $52,400 $34,100
Indiana $94,300 $68,900 $73,600 $53,000 $50,300 $37,700 $25,000
Iowa $82,500 $58,600 $80,400 $53,400 $48,800 $38,300 $23,400
Kansas $83,500 $66,700 $74,800 $46,500 $45,800 $33,100 $18,000
Kentucky $86,700 $64,500 $67,700 $48,400 $43,400 $32,000 $21,600
Louisiana $85,000 $74,700 $85,100 $56,100 $52,700 $31,100 $14,700
Maine $98,700 $111,700 $75,000 $49,200 $43,400 $29,400 $20,900
Maryland $146,000 $148,800 $115,400 $71,800 $58,600 $48,700 $31,500
Massachusetts $185,700 $208,000 $95,800 $79,100 $68,000 $55,400 $39,900
Michigan $115,600 $77,400 $77,200 $67,200 $59,100 $45,400 $29,800
Minnesota $122,400 $94,500 $105,100 $69,100 $63,100 $47,300 $31,500
Mississippi $71,400 $58,300 $62,200 $43,000 $38,900 $25,200 $12,400
Missouri $89,900 $76,400 $72,600 $55,300 $53,700 $38,800 $24,900
Montana $99,500 $72,300 $92,000 $53,800 $53,700 $35,100 $17,200
Nebraska $88,000 $64,400 $75,200 $47,600 $46,300 $35,900 $22,400
Nevada $142,000 $122,300 $136,000 $86,000 $74,900 $53,700 $20,700
New Hampshire $133,300 $165,300 $95,000 $63,000 $52,700 $37,600 $26,100
New Jersey $170,800 $207,400 $119,200 $89,900 $76,900 $63,100 $47,100
New Mexico $108,100 $89,600 $89,700 $49,900 $52,700 $34,500 $6,800
New York $148,700 $168,100 $90,300 $86,400 $75,400 $61,500 $45,700
North Carolina $108,300 $84,100 $71,300 $49,200 $39,400 $29,700 $18,800
North Dakota $74,400 $64,900 $86,900 $49,900 $48,300 $32,700 $16,900
Ohio $103,700 $81,100 $88,900 $67,600 $66,000 $50,300 $35,500
Oklahoma $70,700 $61,500 $70,500 $42,600 $38,900 $31,700 $13,500
Oregon $152,100 $85,700 $112,600 $59,100 $51,700 $41,500 $24,400
Pennsylvania $97,000 $89,100 $77,400 $52,200 $50,300 $42,400 $33,400
Rhode Island $133,000 $170,600 $92,600 $69,900 $60,600 $59,200 $40,000
South Carolina $94,900 $78,100 $69,500 $49,900 $37,000 $31,000 $22,300
South Dakota $79,600 $57,700 $72,400 $43,800 $43,400 $32,800 $16,800
Tennessee $93,000 $74,600 $70,500 $48,000 $40,900 $31,900 $19,000
Texas $82,500 $76,100 $77,400 $46,100 $43,400 $35,200 $17,600
Utah $146,100 $88,000 $113,400 $64,500 $62,100 $44,900 $24,100
Vermont $111,500 $122,000 $83,500 $63,000 $47,800 $38,000 $29,500
Virginia $125,400 $116,300 $95,000 $65,700 $53,200 $39,900 $27,400
Washington $168,300 $119,300 $118,600 $71,100 $57,700 $43,400 $24,500
West Virginia $72,800 $61,200 $76,200 $43,400 $37,400 $33,200 $24,500
Wisconsin $112,200 $79,900 $96,200 $66,400 $62,100 $48,000 $33,600
Wyoming $96,600 $78,700 $118,400 $58,800 $60,600 $41,300 $22,600

Note: To adjust for inflation, the 1940 to 1990 median home values were adjusted to 2000
dollars using the appropriate CPI-U-RS adjustment factor.

Year: 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Adjustment factor: 10.406639 6.057971 4.927308 3.840735 1.979479 1.277636

そして、ここから下が、同じデータで、

一戸建て中央値　（インフレ調整なしバージョン）

Median Home Values: Unadjusted

2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940

United States $119,600 $79,100 $47,200 $17,000 $11,900 $7,354 $2,938

Alabama $85,100 $53,700 $33,900 $12,200 $8,600 $4,473 $1,610
Alaska $144,200 $94,400 $76,300 $22,700 $9,100 $3,477 NA
Arizona $121,300 $80,100 $54,800 $16,300 $11,100 $5,935 $1,400
Arkansas $72,800 $46,300 $31,100 $10,500 $6,700 $4,087 $1,100
California $211,500 $195,500 $84,500 $23,100 $15,100 $9,564 $3,527
Colorado $166,600 $82,700 $64,100 $17,300 $12,300 $7,151 $2,091
Connecticut $166,900 $177,800 $65,600 $25,500 $16,700 $11,862 $4,615
Delaware $130,400 $100,100 $44,400 $17,100 $12,400 $9,079 $4,159
Dist. of Columbia $157,200 $123,900 $68,800 $21,300 $15,400 $14,498 $7,568
Florida $105,500 $77,100 $45,100 $15,000 $11,800 $6,612 $2,218
Georgia $111,200 $71,300 $36,900 $14,600 $9,500 $5,235 $1,957
Hawaii $272,700 $245,300 $118,100 $35,100 $20,900 $12,283 NA
Idaho $106,300 $58,200 $45,600 $14,100 $10,600 $5,852 $1,600
Illinois $130,800 $80,900 $52,800 $19,800 $14,700 $8,646 $3,277
Indiana $94,300 $53,900 $37,200 $13,800 $10,200 $6,226 $2,406
Iowa $82,500 $45,900 $40,600 $13,900 $9,900 $6,320 $2,253
Kansas $83,500 $52,200 $37,800 $12,100 $9,300 $5,462 $1,733
Kentucky $86,700 $50,500 $34,200 $12,600 $8,800 $5,283 $2,074
Louisiana $85,000 $58,500 $43,000 $14,600 $10,700 $5,141 $1,414
Maine $98,700 $87,400 $37,900 $12,800 $8,800 $4,856 $2,008
Maryland $146,000 $116,500 $58,300 $18,700 $11,900 $8,033 $3,031
Massachusetts $185,700 $162,800 $48,400 $20,600 $13,800 $9,144 $3,837
Michigan $115,600 $60,600 $39,000 $17,500 $12,000 $7,496 $2,863
Minnesota $122,400 $74,000 $53,100 $18,000 $12,800 $7,806 $3,024
Mississippi $71,400 $45,600 $31,400 $11,200 $7,900 $4,159 $1,189
Missouri $89,900 $59,800 $36,700 $14,400 $10,900 $6,399 $2,392
Montana $99,500 $56,600 $46,500 $14,000 $10,900 $5,797 $1,651
Nebraska $88,000 $50,400 $38,000 $12,400 $9,400 $5,918 $2,156
Nevada $142,000 $95,700 $68,700 $22,400 $15,200 $8,859 $1,987
New Hampshire $133,300 $129,400 $48,000 $16,400 $10,700 $6,199 $2,505
New Jersey $170,800 $162,300 $60,200 $23,400 $15,600 $10,408 $4,528
New Mexico $108,100 $70,100 $45,300 $13,000 $10,700 $5,697 $656
New York $148,700 $131,600 $45,600 $22,500 $15,300 $10,152 $4,389
North Carolina $108,300 $65,800 $36,000 $12,800 $8,000 $4,901 $1,802
North Dakota $74,400 $50,800 $43,900 $13,000 $9,800 $5,396 $1,626
Ohio $103,700 $63,500 $44,900 $17,600 $13,400 $8,304 $3,415
Oklahoma $70,700 $48,100 $35,600 $11,100 $7,900 $5,228 $1,293
Oregon $152,100 $67,100 $56,900 $15,400 $10,500 $6,846 $2,343
Pennsylvania $97,000 $69,700 $39,100 $13,600 $10,200 $6,992 $3,205
Rhode Island $133,000 $133,500 $46,800 $18,200 $12,300 $9,767 $3,848
South Carolina $94,900 $61,100 $35,100 $13,000 $7,500 $5,112 $2,145
South Dakota $79,600 $45,200 $36,600 $11,400 $8,800 $5,410 $1,618
Tennessee $93,000 $58,400 $35,600 $12,500 $8,300 $5,268 $1,826
Texas $82,500 $59,600 $39,100 $12,000 $8,800 $5,805 $1,693
Utah $146,100 $68,900 $57,300 $16,800 $12,600 $7,409 $2,320
Vermont $111,500 $95,500 $42,200 $16,400 $9,700 $6,277 $2,836
Virginia $125,400 $91,000 $48,000 $17,100 $10,800 $6,581 $2,633
Washington $168,300 $93,400 $59,900 $18,500 $11,700 $7,169 $2,359
West Virginia $72,800 $47,900 $38,500 $11,300 $7,600 $5,473 $2,350
Wisconsin $112,200 $62,500 $48,600 $17,300 $12,600 $7,927 $3,232
Wyoming $96,600 $61,600 $59,800 $15,300 $12,300 $6,811 $2,174

NA: Not Available
Source: U.S. Census Bureau　米国連邦統計局データ

いかがですか？　調整前の１９４０年の不動産価格が、２，０００ドルとかっていうのも、目が点ですが、実は、インフレ調整後の数字で見ても、物件の価値は、なんと、単純に言って、６０年で、４倍にも値上がりしているのです。

それに対し、日本は、どうなっているでしょうか？

日本の場合、「上物」の価値が、中古の場合、累進的に低くなり、そのため、「計算に入れる意味がない」と思われています。なので、多くの評価は、「土地」を基準にしていますね。地価です。

財団法人日本不動産研究所の市街地価格指数の推移と比べてみてください。比較については、こちらの記事を、ご参考に。